Tag: and predictive analytics

Annotation: In today's highly competitive market, retaining users is becoming an essential part of sustainable business growth. This article aims to explore the mechanisms behind long-term product abandonment (churn), specifically focusing on how negative user experiences and cognitive dissonance, which arises when expectations are not met, can lead to permanent user defection. Based on the Expectation Disconfirmation Theory, we analyze the cognitive and emotional factors that transform temporary dissatisfaction into permanent departure from a product. The study examines the impact of various moderators, such as the severity of negative incidents, the availability of alternative products, and the effectiveness of customer service recovery efforts. The research finds that violated expectations play a crucial role in mediating between negative experiences and long-term churn, with emotional reactions often having a greater impact than rational assessments of functional shortcomings. The practical significance of this work lies in the creation of scientifically based recommendations for product managers and marketers to proactively manage expectations during the onboarding process, as well as the introduction of predictive models and algorithms to quickly stop negative experiences.